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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."